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Netflix Gets Island Reversal On Earnings

Netflix (NFLX) earnings were released today, and the news was good. . . except for one little thing. They also suspiciously announced that, starting next year, they would no longer be reporting subscriber metrics. That’s like General Motors saying that they will no longer report how many cars and trucks they made. I admit that some other aspect of the report could be a contributing factor for the crash, but let’s look at the technicals.

After the gap up in January, price formed a three-month island that drifted higher, but all was not well technically. The falling PMO formed a negative divergence against the rising price. When the PMO falls above the zero line, it is telling us that the strength behind the up move is diminishing.

Also, the On-Balance Volume (OBV) went flat to slightly falling. OBV usually tracks price, and when it doesn’t, it should attract our attention. In this case, it is suggesting that NFLX is not attracting sufficient volume to justify the rise in price.

Conclusion: Gaps don’t always result in island reversals. For example, there was a gap up in October, following which a very similar island was formed. However, in January price gapped up from that island instead of reversing. In the case of the latest island, OBV sent up the warning flag.


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